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For immediate release:

Contact:
Chuck Cornwell
RE/MAX Regency
540-341-1075
ChuckCornwell@remax.net

Local Real Estate Market Continues to Improve

Preliminary data for May 2009

Warrenton, Virginia, May 1, 2009 - It is a little early to pull some the the Market Dynamic Graphs, but I could not wait!  Why would I say it's early?  One element we look closely at is "Months Supply" of homes.  This data is driven from the change in the status of a listing from "Active" to "Under Contract" in our MLS system.  We typically wait a couple weeks as takes this long from the date an offer is written by a potential purchaser, till the point the buyer and seller make a full agreement and this is entered into the MLS system.

With this said, the Months Supply number will get smaller as the contracts are entered into the MLS.  For now, this is the numbers we have.

ALL MRIS MARKET STATS

First, let's look at all of the local area MLS data.  Our MLS is one of the largest in the country and it covers many local market.  To see the area, click here.

In April, we have seen a continuation of home prices on the rise that began last month.  Our Median List Price has moved back up to October 2008 .  See the chart here.  Our Months Supply of homes is now down to a 5 month inventory.  Statistically, this is a BALANCED market.  Not an oversupply of homes, nor an undersupply. See this chart here.  But as I say this, remember, this number will drop as the home status change over the next couple weeks in the MLS.  Also, note the trend.  We are seeing a tightening in the overall market.
 
Lastly for the stats on all of MRIS, see the Basic Absorption chart here.  You will nee to compare this chart to the more local markets just to really understand how the local markets in Virginia have really tightened.

VIRGINIA MARKET STATS

Now let's look at the Virginia MRIS market area...

The median list price of our real estate is really jumping!!  In fact, in the last two months we have retraced our pricing back to March 2008 levels - A YEAR AGO!  See the chart here.  Wow, when the market starts to move, it REALLY moves. 

Why are we seeing this jump in prices?  Just look at our Months Supply of homes!  We are now down to 2.6 month supply.  See the chart here.  This market is a SELLERS market, limited inventory causes prices to go up.  Simple supply and demand rules.

You see this narrowing in the sales to new inventory here in the Basic Absorption chart for Virginia.

PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY MARKET STATS

Here is the market that is the bulls eye of the market "correction".  Prices in this area have dropped more than other areas, so this is the area that is the first and FASTEST to recover.  Fact is, this market area "over corrected".  Prices dropped further than is sustainable. What do I mean here?  Consider this, the population in this market continues to grow, as the entire Washington/Baltimore metro area continues to do.  With growth comes the need for housing.  Our housing stock in this area is pretty much gone, so we need the builders back building in this area to keep up with growth.  But the problem is, banks have been offering homes at $60 to $70 per square foot, INCLUDING the lot.  When we need builder to build, they need at least $100 per square foot to build PLUS the cost of the lot. 

PRICES MUST GO UP!

And they are.  Just look at this Median List Price Chart.  Pricing pressure will continue to escalate in this local market.  Just look at where our Months Supply of homes is for last month - a 1.5 months supply!  See the chart here.  This IS a SELLERS market.

Now here is where you really see the market has changed with the Basic Absorption Chart for Prince William County.  We are selling homes faster than they are going on the market.


FAUQUIER COUNTY MARKET STATS

Now let's look at Fauquier County's stats.  The median price in this market is now back to December 2007 - OVER A YEAR AGO.  See the chart here.  Our Months Supply in this area is till with the entire regions numbers, at 5.3 months, but remember, we will see this number drop as all the properties status are changed in the MLS over the next couple weeks.  Fauquier is a smaller market area, and just a few properties make a large difference.  Here is the Months Supply chart. 

The Fauquier Basic Absorption Chart also shows market improvement. 

CULPEPER COUNTY MARKET STATS

Lastly, for this report, we will look at Culpeper County.  We are seeing price improvement in this market as well, as our median list price has now retraced back to October 2008 prices.  See the chart here.  The months supply in this area did go up in this chart, but remember, this will still adjust down based upon contracts being entered in the MLS.  Also, we are getting some new inventory of builder homes in this market area.  It only takes a few listings to effect this number as the market area is small, and this is exactly what we need to see to find stability in the market.

Lastly, we look at the Basic Absorption chart for this market area.  Here we see a continuation of a recovering and improving real estate market.

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Chuck Cornwell is the Broker and Co-Owner of RE/MAX Regency, a multi office real estate franchise company based in Warrenton, Virginia, and he is the Vice-President of the Greater Piedmont Area Association of REALTORS.  RE/MAX Regency has been recognized as a leading real estate company in the nation by industry publications including RIS Media's "2009 Power Broker Report" and being named a "Great Office" by RE/MAX International.

If you would like more information on this topic, or to schedule and interview with Chuck Cornwell, please call 540-341-1075 or e-mail to ChuckCornwell@remax.net